AMC Leisure Holdings Inc. inventory has “decoupled” from fundamentals and needs to be offered, in keeping with MKM Companions analyst Eric Handler, who mentioned the inventory might fall to $1 this yr.
rose $1.03, or 7.8%, in morning buying and selling Monday, however pared earlier intraday positive factors of as a lot as 30.1%, whereas buying and selling quantity ballooned to 245.6 million shares.
Though the inventory additionally soared $4.63, or 53.7%, on Friday, it has now recovered just 50% of the $11.27, or 56.6% plunge it suffered final Thursday after the Robinhood trading platform restricted trading in some shares.
Handler lower his ranking on AMC to promote, after being at impartial since Might 2020. He additionally halved his 12-month inventory value goal, to $1 from $2, saying that whereas liquidity isn’t a difficulty for 2021, “reaching solvency got here at a steep value.”
He believes the current value spike and volatility within the inventory, with a bit assist from the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd, “has decoupled AMC’s share value and its valuation.”
Handler acknowledged that the near-term prospects of chapter have been prevented, because the struggling movie show chain has raised $1.2 billion in contemporary capital over the previous couple months.
“Nevertheless, fairness shareholders have been diluted by roughly 75% during the last couple months and there’s nonetheless roughly $5.7 billion of debt, a complete which is rising every quarter because of deferred curiosity funds that are tacked on to the principal steadiness,” Handler wrote in a observe to shoppers. “There may be additionally the overhang of $450 million of deferred rents which can some day have to be addressed.”
Handler estimates that AMC at the moment has roughly 440 million shares excellent, based mostly on current firm filings and bulletins of at-the-market (ATM) inventory choices and debt exchanges. That compares with the full 137.4 million Class A and Class B shares the corporate had on the finish of October.
“It will not be shocking to see AMC discover the opportunity of one other ATM providing on account of the corporate’s elevated inventory value,” Handler wrote. “Further exchanges of debt for fairness is probably going one other path administration will discover.”
The inventory has skyrocketed 505.7% simply this yr, whereas the S&P 500 index
has slipped 0.1%.
Individually, Handler downgraded fellow cinema chain Cinemark Holdings Inc.
to impartial from purchase, saying he sees restricted near-term upside with the inventory principally again pre-pandemic ranges. Regardless of the downgrade, he raised his inventory honest worth estimate to $22 from $15.
In the meantime, Handler reiterated his purchase ranking on IMAX Corp.
and lifted his inventory value goal to $25 from $18. He says IMAX’s enterprise mannequin “makes an enormous distinction,” because the “world footprint and asset-light construction” has helped it navigate by the COVID-19 pandemic.